China's Unofficial Gold Buying May Far Exceed Reported Figures

Recent analysis from Goldman Sachs indicates that global central bank gold demand, particularly from China, might be substantially underestimated by official reserve data. The investment bank's estimates suggest that China's actual gold acquisitions could be several times the publicly reported figures, with a notable surge in May.

This accelerated buying, predominantly concentrated in China, is viewed by Goldman Sachs as a crucial price floor for gold, even amidst potential near-term headwinds from Federal Reserve monetary policy. For retail traders in forex, CFDs, and cryptocurrencies, understanding these underlying demand dynamics can offer valuable context for gold's price movements, as it often correlates with broader market sentiment and risk appetite.

Goldman Sachs frames this elevated central bank accumulation as a sustained, multi-year structural trend. This trend is largely attributed to a strategic diversification of national reserves away from U.S. dollar-denominated assets. Such long-term shifts in reserve management can have a significant impact on commodities like gold, influencing its role as a safe-haven asset.

Central Bank Demand and Future Outlook

• Goldman Sachs estimates China acquired over 48 tonnes of gold in May through the London OTC market, marking its largest monthly purchase in over a year.
• This figure is significantly higher than the 4.8 tonnes officially reported by China for May, highlighting a potential discrepancy.
• The bank maintains its end-2026 gold price forecast of $4,900 per troy ounce, anchored by this persistent central bank demand.
• With private portfolio allocations to gold currently low, Goldman Sachs sees potential for broader demand beyond central banks if geopolitical uncertainties continue to escalate, suggesting a positive medium-term price outlook.

The discrepancy between official and estimated gold accumulation by central banks, particularly China, underscores a significant, ongoing structural shift in global reserve management. This sustained demand provides a fundamental support for gold prices, influencing its stability and potential for appreciation in the coming years.