Data from Kpler indicates that the number of vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz fell below 20 over the recent weekend. This reduction in visible traffic occurred as the United States prepared to announce stricter sanctions against Iran, and following a threat from Iran's Minister of Petroleum, Rezaei, to potentially halt all oil exports from the Persian Gulf. Such developments often contribute to increased volatility in crude oil prices, impacting instruments like Brent and WTI CFDs.
This visible decline in vessel numbers might not fully reflect the actual flow of oil. Previous reports suggested that over 80% of liquid cargo through the strait in a recent two-week period either utilized an Omani route or operated with transponders switched off. Furthermore, a US-supported corridor along Oman's coast has reportedly facilitated the movement of approximately 10 million barrels of oil per day, with over 660 million barrels shipped through the strait since early May.
Implications for Oil Markets
The discrepancy between reported transponder-based counts and actual cargo movement suggests that the low weekend transit figure might overstate the immediate disruption to physical oil supply. However, the combination of a reduced visible transit count and Rezaei's export halt threat reinforces the risk premium already incorporated into global oil benchmarks like Brent and WTI. For retail traders, this environment typically translates into higher price swings, which can present both opportunities and risks in oil-linked CFDs.
Until more definitive data emerges regarding the current throughput of the Omani corridor, the market is likely to experience continued elevated volatility rather than a clear directional trend. Traders should remain aware of these geopolitical tensions as they assess their positions in energy-related assets.
📰 Based on reporting from: ForexLive →