Financial markets are observing a period of consolidation following yesterday's recovery from earlier lows. This shift comes as tensions between the US and Iran appear to be easing, prompting a more optimistic sentiment among investors. Traders are now likely to maintain positions while awaiting key economic data releases later in the week, particularly the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report scheduled for Tuesday, which will offer further insights into inflationary pressures.
In the European trading session, the release of the European Central Bank (ECB) accounts is on the schedule. However, this report is generally not considered a significant market driver. The information contained within these accounts often reflects past discussions and policy considerations, making it somewhat dated by the time of its publication. Consequently, its impact on real-time market movements, including major forex pairs like EUR/USD, is typically limited.
For retail forex and CFD traders, understanding which economic reports are truly market-moving versus those that are largely historical is crucial for effective risk management and strategy planning. While all data offers some context, not all releases warrant immediate trading action.
US Jobless Claims in Focus
The primary economic highlight during the American session will be the release of the latest US Jobless Claims data. Initial Jobless Claims are projected to be around 217,000, a slight increase from the previous figure of 215,000. Continuing Claims are anticipated to remain steady at 1,814,000. Unless these figures show a substantial deviation from expectations, their market impact is generally anticipated to be modest.
The US labor market has demonstrated resilience throughout the year, with the unemployment rate declining to 4.2% in June from a peak of 4.5% observed in November 2025. This strengthening labor market has allowed the Federal Reserve to increasingly shift its policy focus towards managing inflation, which is currently a more pressing concern within its dual mandate. Several central bank officials are also scheduled to speak today, including Fed's Williams and Logan, and SNB's Martin, whose comments could provide additional nuance to monetary policy outlooks.
Overall, markets are likely to remain cautious, balancing recent geopolitical developments with upcoming economic indicators, particularly those related to the US economy.
📰 Based on reporting from: ForexLive →